Abstract:

China is the world’s leading manufacturer and at the same time the largest fast-growing market with sustainable demand for all types of commodities. For Ukraine, China is a major trade partner in Asia, second global trade partner after the Russian Federation and its possible substitute as a destination of Ukrainian export. However, growing turnover of Ukraine-China bilateral trade may also pose a threat to Ukrainian external economic security. This article aims to analyze the contemporary bilateral trade between Ukraine and China to identify possible threats, provide recommendations to minimize the negative impact of trade on the Ukrainian economy. To meet these objectives methods of evaluation of competitiveness and probability of competition with a certain partner in commodities trade are considered. Using tech-intensity decomposition and Revealed Comparative Advantage Index quality and effectiveness of Ukraine-China bilateral trade was evaluated and revealed. It was determined that during the researched time interval bilateral trade between Ukraine and China deteriorated in terms of quality and export composition and now poses a significant threat to Ukrainian economic security. Possible actions to prevent and avoid severe competition and improve trade relations were proposed.