Abstract:

Higher education is one of the major Europe 2020 strategies, and the target set by 2020 is that at least 40% of young people aged 30–34 should obtain higher education qualification. The amount of tertiary education graduates is growing for the last decades in Slovakia, however we do not exactly know if we achieve this target. The objective of the paper is to analyze the CVTI data and to forecast if we meet the European 2020 target until 2020. For this forecast we used trend analysis, breakpoint analysis and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the amount of university graduates, until the year 2020. Our outcomes are showing, that the amount of male and female graduates will fall after 2020, therefore Slovakia will meet the target for females but the number of graduates will afterward decrease. However from the overall trend of both the male and female data and the outcome of ARIMA model as well we might see a potential future grow of graduates after 2020.