Abstract:

: The paper examines factors that have affected inbound tourist flows and tourism-based profits in Ukraine over the last decade. The present study sheds light on changes taking place in the tourism market of a developing country: Ukraine. The statistical analysis was based on data for oblasts (Ukrainian provinces are referred to as oblasts) from the period 2006-2019 – data in the form of the number of tourists staying at hotels and other accommodation facilities. The unobserved component model (UCM) was used to forecast trends in inbound tourism, excluding the current political conflict. The trend studied herein is based on foreign tourist volume data for Ukraine. Differences in changes in the studied trendline (coefficient of determination) were used in the statistical analysis of variances between different oblasts, with consideration given to mean squared error.