Abstract:

The paper returns to the idea that chaos theory may be used in tourism research. The purpose of the study was to create a model that will allow to identify periods of chaotic behavior in tourism systems. The ARIMA procedure and linear regression were used in the study to look at historical tourist volume data. The resulting analysis uses classic methods of analyzing time series. The method of least squares weighted using distance was employed to identify anomalies in the trend line for the studied issue. The research helped create a model that made it possible to identify periods of chaotic behavior in the studied systems. This, in turn, helped generate a more realistic picture of the development of tourist destinations. The present study shows that the analysis of past and present trends can serve as the basis for the implementation of a tourism development plan designed to manage crisis situations and anticipate probable scenarios. The paper underscores the usefulness of chaos theory in the analysis of complicated socioeconomic processes associated with the development of the tourism sector. Limitations of the approach and future research directions are also discussed.