Abstract:

Introduction. The still low in comparison with the developed countries level of mortgage development in the Russian Federation and a significant imbalance in the development of regional mortgage markets dictate the need to improve managing approaches of regional mortgage inequality based on the development of methods for assessing the mortgage potential of Russian entities. The study aims to substantiate the need, methodology, and practical tools of express methods for assessing the regions' mortgage potential to prepare balanced decisions for managing regional mortgage markets. Materials and Methods. The study was carried out mainly on the basis of data from the state statistics offices, such as Rosstat and the Central Bank. At the same time, the study used data generated by the Russian Financial Institute for Housing Development (DOM.RF), RIA Rating Publishing House, and some others. The main method for a comprehensive regional mortgage potential assessment was the multivariate factor analysis, in particular, the principal component analysis. The express assessment method of the regions’ mortgage potential is based on regression analysis. Results. The development of regression models factors that form the differential indicator is proposed to be carried out by inverse convolution of the primary indicators to obtain their approximate values. The study presents the formation results of a multiple linear regression model for the F2 factor, which was interpreted as an indicator of the housing mortgage affordability in the region. The obtained indicators of t-statistics and analysis of variance indicate the high quality of the model and the possibility of its use in practical calculations. The scientific novelty of the research is the proposed approach to the formation of the express method and the regression model of the F2 factor obtained on its basis. Discussion and conclusion. The developed approach to the regional mortgage potential express assessment expands the level and area of complex assessments eliminates its disadvantages, thus having significant advantages. The most important direction of further authors’ research is to obtain multiple regression models for two other factors (main components) that form the differential indicator of regional residential mortgage lending (RML) system development.